Palantir's U.S. Commercial Revenue Jumps 148%; Its Commercial TCV Grows 11%

Palantir reached a milestone in its third-quarter 2026 results: revenue from U.S. commercial customers surpassed revenue from U.S. government agencies for the first time. The numbers also offer a less straightforward picture of future business, because a separate measure of new contract value grew much more slowly than recognized commercial sales.

Commercial customers move ahead in the U.S.

In results released November 2 for the quarter ended September 30, Palantir reported $984 million of U.S. commercial revenue, up 148% from a year earlier and 29% from the preceding quarter. U.S. government revenue was $953 million, up 96% year over year. The $31 million gap matters because the company, long associated with government data-analysis contracts, is now drawing slightly more quarterly revenue from domestic businesses than from domestic government customers. The comparison is specifically between its two U.S. customer segments, not between all commercial and all government revenue globally.

Palantir's worldwide revenue reached $2.313 billion, an increase of 96% year over year. GAAP operating income was approximately $1.085 billion, a 47% operating margin, and GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.44. The company separately reported adjusted operating income of approximately $1.427 billion, a 62% margin; that non-GAAP measure excludes certain stock-based compensation expenses and related employer payroll taxes, so it should not be confused with GAAP earnings.

The contract-value wrinkle

U.S. commercial total contract value, or TCV, closed during the quarter was $1.463 billion, up 11% year over year. That is a materially different growth rate from the 148% increase in U.S. commercial revenue. However, these metrics measure different things: revenue reflects services recognized during the quarter, while TCV represents the estimated potential lifetime value of contracts signed or awarded in that period. Their growth rates are not interchangeable, and one quarter's TCV should not be treated as a direct forecast of next quarter's revenue.

Palantir's definition of TCV also generally assumes customers exercise available contract options and do not terminate agreements. The company explicitly cautions that those assumptions are not guaranteed. As another measure of potential future business, Palantir reported $6.517 billion in U.S. commercial remaining deal value (RDV), up 79% from a year earlier. RDV is a period-end balance of estimated remaining contract value, not revenue or the same measure as contracts closed in the quarter. The slower TCV growth is therefore a point to monitor alongside RDV, not proof that commercial revenue will slow by a comparable amount.

Guidance rises again

Management increased its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to $8.530 billion–$8.534 billion. It also projected fourth-quarter revenue of $2.649 billion–$2.653 billion and said it expects full-year U.S. commercial revenue above $3.559 billion, implying at least 143% year-over-year growth. All are forward-looking company guidance rather than reported future results. Reuters reported that the fourth-quarter revenue range topped the LSEG-compiled analyst average of about $2.46 billion; that consensus figure is not Palantir's own forecast.

The earnings release describes strong adoption of Palantir's software and AI products, but customer adoption claims are company statements, not independently measured market-share data.

Why it matters for the S&P 500

Palantir joined the S&P 500 effective September 23, 2024, according to the index provider, and was still flagged as a constituent in TickerCanvas's November 2, 2026 cached universe. For investors following the index's software and AI exposure, the results show two developments worth evaluating together: exceptionally fast recognized commercial revenue growth, and a slower expansion in the potential value of newly closed U.S. commercial contracts.

Next quarters will reveal whether those two trends converge or diverge. Neither the strong reported results nor the TCV figure alone establishes a likely share-price or index outcome.

Original sources: Palantir's November 2, 2026 earnings release filed with the SEC; Reuters' November 2 independent earnings reporting; S&P Dow Jones Indices' membership announcement. Figures are for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 unless otherwise identified. No live market prices are used.

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